有史以来头一回美联储独自拥有发达国家中最高利率( 五 )_来源：人民币交易与研究BiancoResearch

So what gets the market to price in a 50 basis point cut? As we also pointed out yesterday: Currently, the S&P 500 is trading around 2890. Given a drop to 2822 pushed the implied odds of a 50 bps cut to 36%, it is looking like a trade under 2800 (about an 8% correction from the all-time high) would push fed funds futures to price in a 50% chance of a 50 bps cut.

下图显示了降息50个基点的几率。

The next chart illustrates how the odds of a 50 basis point cut.

总结

当美联储9月18日开会时，官员们应该问自己以下问题:

When the Fed meets style="margin: 40px 0px; word-break: normal; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: justify; font-size: 32px; line-height: 56px; padding: 0px 10px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: sans-serif; ">我们管理的联邦基金利率，现在是发达国家中最高且是唯一处在这一水平的利率。像收益率曲线这样的市场指标表明，这是错误的。